MLB 2009 First Pitch Preview - AL East

Spring is in the air again, and that means it's time to get geared up for another year with America's pasttime. This will be a multi-part series on my predictions and analysis on each team in each division in Major League Baseball (** denotes Wild Card winner). The teams are listed in order from top to bottom of their respective divisions. I will also be churning out a full scale preview on my picks for all the awards, as well as predictions for each round of the playoffs.

I have also included a "Help Is On The Way" section to identify the top prospects for each club that could be making a big league impact soon.

And away we go...


AL East Champions- Tampa Bay Rays
What’s not to like about this team? I hear a lot of chatter from some other baseball writers about the “cooldown” or “letdown” year this team is susceptible to, but I’m just not buying into that idea. They have a bit of everything, each piece is talented, young, and hungry to keep changing the way people have historically thought about the franchise. The team is almost virtually unchanged from the squad that not only posted the first winning season in club history, but also won a very tough AL East division title, gutted out a 7-game ALCS win over a heavily favored Boston team defending a world championship for their first AL pennant before running out of gas against Philly in the World Series. The only changes made were to trade away 5th starter Edwin Jackson to make room in the rotation for über talented super-rookie David Price (a MAJOR upgrade) and filling their gaping hole at DH for the streaky yet big-swinging Pat “The Bat” Burrell. Their bullpen is very deep with talent, both righties and lefties, and the back end is pretty solid with Dan Wheeler and flamethrower Grant Balfour setting the table for veteran closer Troy Percival. Along with Price, Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza form a quite formidable starting rotation with perhaps the highest ceiling of potential in the major leagues. Their positional lineup features excellent defensive players while being consistent contributors at the plate as well. 2008 AL Rookie of Year Evan Longoria is poised to be a big time player for a long time, as are centerfielder B.J. Upton, and catcher Dioner Navarro. They have all the tools to not only win the division again this year, but compete for the crown for years to come.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: 2008 #1 overall draft pick Tim Beckham, a shortstop with legit 5-tool talent who probably won’t see the bigs for another couple years, but is already, at 19, more talented that current starter Jason Bartlett. His ceiling is comparable to a young, healthy Nomar Garciaparra.

New York Yankees**
My goodness. After missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons, The Bronx Bombers decided to pull out all the stops to reload before moving into the new stadium. It’s been said before that “the Yankees don’t rebuild, they reload.” Never was that adage more true than this offseason when The Pinstripes went out and signed all 3 of the top available free agents on the market this winter. Facing the retirement of potential Hall of Famer and recent 20-game winning pitcher Mike Mussina, combined with the underdevelopment of former top pitching prospects Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, the Yanks inked the top 2 pitchers available in 2007 Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia and former All-Star starter A.J. Burnett for a combined $340+ million to shore up their thin starting rotation. With Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu both departing via free agency, the Yankees solidified up their lineup with a $180 million deal for switch hitting, Gold Glove winning first baseman Mark Teixeira. It sure is expensive to miss the playoffs in New York…
After all that though, New York has what looks to be a pretty deep roster that is good enough to beat anybody on any given day. Their starting rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, two-time 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang, lefty veteran Andy Pettitte, and young gun Joba Chamberlain is one of the most potent and versatile in the big leagues. Their lineup is deep and will certainly be among the highest scoring in the game, headlined by Teixeira, 3-time AL MVP Alex Rodriguez, 9-time All-Star and Captain Derek Jeter, and switch-hitting slugger, catcher Jorge Posada. The bullpen is also deep with future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera leading a group that includes lefty setup man Damaso Marte, full-season rookies Alfredo Aceves (R) and Phil Coke (L), promising youngster Mark Melancon (who many predict will be the heir to Rivera’s throne as closer), and the Bugs Bunny changeup of Edwar Ramirez. Defense won’t be this teams’ strong suit, and, because of that, they’ll give up a fair share of runs. However, the potency of the batting order (25-home run hitter Xavier Nady and .300 career hitter Robinson Cano will bat 7th & 8th respectively) will overcome more than a couple of runs against. They should narrowly edge out Boston and Texas for the AL Wild Card spot.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: The Yankees have a pretty sizable hole in center field as of now, but Austin Jackson is on his way to taking the full time gig from Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, possibly as early as this summer. Jackson has been the Yank’s top prospect for the last few years and projects as a B.J. Upton-type player at the next level. For Yankee fans wondering what will happen when Jorge Posada ages too much to catch full time (which might have already happened), catching prospect Jesus Montero, who reminds many of Posada only more advanced for his age, is one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball and is still only 19 years old. He may be major league ready enough for perhaps a late September call up, but is most likely a couple years away from seeing regular action.

Boston Red Sox
Red Sox Nation has a lot to cheer for right now. Their beloved BoSox ended their infamous title drought in dramatic fashion in 2004 and won it all again in 2007. The re-tooled Celtics are the defending NBA Champs. The Patriots, despite falling short of their perfect season dream in 2007 and suffering through a Brady-less season in ’08, have still banked 3 Lombardi Trophies this decade. The Bruins are looking like a strong favorite to hoist the Stanley Cup this June. But, this year’s Red Sox club will, I predict, bring the fans back into this stratosphere. Not that I don’t believe the team is good. They are. Unfortunately, with the Yankees re-upping the ante and the Rays loaded for the foreseeable future, there can only be two teams make the playoffs from the division. Make no mistake, this team will compete. Their lineup, despite losing Manny Ramirez, is still stout. 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia and infield neighbor All-Star Kevin Youkilis can flat out rake. ’08 Deadline acquisition Jason Bay has the ability to perform a suitable job replacing Mr. Ramirez (that is, if anyone of the last half century can). JD Drew is, while still not deserving of his bloated contract, a very good major league hitter. David Ortiz is due for a bounce back year after struggling with some nagging injuries the past couple years, and regain his form as one of the most feared sluggers on the planet. Not to mention their pitching, which easily makes up for some of their offensive inadequacies (I’m looking at you, Mr. Varitek). Josh Beckett is still one of the premier aces in Major League Baseball, and Jon Lester has made “the leap” into the realm of All-Star-caliber starters. Japanese dynamo Daisuke Matsuzaka might be the best #3 starter around. Any team could do considerably worse than having newcomers John Smoltz and Brad Penny battling to earn the 5th spot in the rotation. The bullpen features a core group of youngsters that are the real deal. All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon is one of the most feared closers there is, Justin Masterson, while ultimately projecting as a top-middle rotation guy, is currently wreaking havoc out of the ‘pen, and Manny Delcarmen keeps getting better every year.
Unfortunately, unless youngsters like centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and shortstop Jed Lowrie blow away expectations and take their games to the next level, the Sawks will fall short of the postseason and The Nation will spend their October cheering for the Celts, Bruins, and Pats.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: “Youk” had better keep that third baseman’s mitt handy. At some point very soon, Mike Lowell will no longer be able to man the hot corner. Luckily, when Youkilis moves back to 3rd, Big Papi won’t have to be left to fumble around at 1st. Big time slugger Lars Anderson is one of the heaviest hitters tearing up the minors, and Boston will be looking to bring him up to the big club soon to further bolster the lineup. Righty starter Michael Bowden will likely land in Fenway by mid-2009 as a spot starter/reliever, and has the potential to be a Kevin Millwood-type starter down the road.

Toronto Blue Jays
86 wins make for a halfway decent season for most clubs. Unfortunately for The Canuck Birds, it’s only good for a disappointing 4th place in the rugged American League East division. That must be sad for this club to work so hard (and field an above-average roster, by the way) only to continue with a playoff drought that dates back to their 1993 World Series win. That’s right, they haven’t even made the postseason since they won their last chip. Toronto has some nice pieces in place, too. Workhorse Roy Halladay is truly one of the elite starters in the game, and is the definition of an ace. For the last 5+ years, Halladay has been among the league leaders in innings pitched, complete games, ERA, and strikeouts. Roy is supported by one of the American League’s more sneaky-good bullpens featuring righty Jeremy Accardo and closer BJ Ryan. The Jays are one of the better defensive clubs in baseball, and with guys like All-Star outfielders Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, and veteran third baseman Scott Rolen, they can hit as well. The bad news is, unless one these first 3 clubs listed above suddenly change divisions, Toronto will be stuck in 4th looking up at the rest of the division for the foreseeable future.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: Help is coming very soon for this club with top hitting prospect Travis Snider slated to start the season up with the big club, and possibly taking over the full-time leftfield job as early as May. Snider has shown a propensity to strike out a bit at this level after a brief September call-up last year, but when he makes contact, he can absolutely crush the ball. With a kid who’s comparable to Jason Bay in terms of ability, it’ll only be a matter of time for this 20 year old to catch on.

Baltimore Orioles
Well, the good news is that there are some exciting young players on the roster. The bad news is that those youngsters have a lot to overcome in order to become a winning ball club. Put it this way: When arguably the best pitcher on your staff is overrated closer George Sherrill, you could obviously be fielding a better squad. The outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam “Don’t Call Me Pac-Man” Jones, and Felix “The Cat” Pie are as young and multi-talented as there is. All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts, despite his ties to the infamous Mitchell Report, is still a steady glove and consistent bat at the top of the order. Outside that, this team is, put nicely, awful. The pitching starved Rangers couldn’t wait to rid themselves of the atrocious Adam Eaton, yet the O’s have him penciled in as their #4 starter. Former dynamite Cubs prospect Rich Hill was given away for “A Player To Be Named Later”, and he’s the #2 man. Jeremy Guthrie is a #3 or #4 starter masquerading as an ace. Unless something drastic happens, this Orioles team will be bottom dwellers for a long, long time.
HELP IS ON THE WAY: Catcher Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s #5 overall draft pick in the first round of the 2007 MLB amateur draft, is poised to take over full-time backstop duties this year. After tearing up minor league pitching and going through the entire farm system in only 2 years, Wieters, who as a switch hitting catcher with some pop reminds some of a young Jason Varitek, should supplant veteran Gregg Zaun in the everyday lineup by May. He’s regarded by most scouts as the best pure hitting prospect in all of baseball.

Coming Soon: AL West...

Don't Look Now, But...

On May 30 of this year, Buster Olney posted this update on his ESPN.com blog [Insider required] regarding the playoff hopes of the New York Yankees at the time:

"The Yankees … have reached the point where they will almost require a historic comeback to make the playoffs:

The Yankees’ deficit in the division race is 14.5 games. Only one team has won a division or league with a deficit of greater than 14 games — the 1914 Boston Braves.

The Yankees’ deficit in the wildcard is 8.5 games. Only four wildcard winners have overcome greater deficits than that — the ‘95 Yankees (who were once nine games out), the 2001 Athletics (once 10.5 games out), the 2003 Marlins (11.5 games out), and the 2005 Astros (11.5 games out).

Only two other times have the Yankees had a larger deficit in May — 1984: In the year in which the Tigers started 35-5, the Yankees fell 17.5 games out in May. 1913: the Yankees were as much as 18.5 games out in May."

At that time the Ole Pinstripers were in, needless to say, extreme danger of breaking their streak of 12 consecutive trips to the postseason. The team had been through a variety of setbacks; between the trade of stars Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield in the offseason, the unexpected tragic death of starter Cory Lidle, and the extended DL-stints of notable players all across the diamond, this team looked uninspiring at best (in deep trouble).

The Yanks had a hodge-podge starting rotation that consisted of high-priced old guys (Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and, later, Roger Clemens), young studs with a high ceiling of potential but unproven (Chien-Ming Wang, Philip Hughes) and young guys with less than 5 career big league starts (Jeff Karstens, Chase Wright, Darrell Rasner, Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, and overpaid Japanese import Kei Igawa who has since been designated for assignment and placed on waivers). Throw in the Ghost of Carl Pavano and his 5 wins in 19 starts over the last three years, and you've got some obvious pitching concerns for mounting the comeback trail to the playoffs. Add to it...

Mussina missed close to a month with a bad hamstring. Wang started the season on the DL with a shaky hammy, and was out until the end of April. Karstens, who was only called up to replace other injured pitchers, missed two full months after took a line drive to the shin and suffered a broken leg. The aforementioned Pavano, who wasn't exactly known for staying healthy beforehand, got shut down for the rest of the season with an injury to his forearm (this was after sitting out the entire 2006 season with a myriad of impairments, yet was tabbed as the 2007 Opening Day starter...go figure.) Hughes went down in the 7th inning of a no-hitter performance against the Texas Rangers with a shaky hamstring and was shelved for the better part of two months. There seemed to be no luck at all in staying healthy for the staff. (After Hughes went down, the team subsequently gave Strength & Conditioning Coach Marty Miller his walking papers.)

Then, there were the issues with the lineup.

After starting the year on a historically ridiculous pace, Alex Rodriguez dipped into a .235 month of May and looked like he might be on his way back down to Earth. Outfielder Bobby Abreu was down around 70 points beneath his career batting average and 210 points below his career slugging percentage and at no point resembled the player who hit .330 with 42 RBI in 58 games for the Yankees in 2006 after being traded from Philadelpia at the trade deadline. Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi both had missed significant portions of time and were noticeably underperforming compared to their career numbers. Second baseman Robinson Cano, who hit .342 in '06 and finished 3rd for the AL Batting crown, was hovering near the .230 mark. Doug Mientkiewicz was literally knocked out of the lineup on June 2 after colliding with Red Sox 3rd Baseman Mike Lowell on a play at 1st base, and suffered a concussion and a broken wrist (He is yet to return to the team). Japanese slugger and fan favorite Hideki Matsui missed time with nagging hamstring and wrist injuries (notice the pattern yet?).

At the All-Star break, the Bombers were 42-43 and sitting on the outside looking in for the right to play in October.



...and then they turned it around.

...in a hurry.

How'd they manage to do that?

Well...

1.The bats got scorching hot:

-New York leads the major leagues in Runs Scored, Batting Average, Slugging %, RBI, On-Base %, and OPS, while ranking in the Top 5 in Total Hits, Extra Base Hits, Home Runs, & Total Bases.
-Damon and Giambi (again, who've both missed chunks of time with various injuries) Abreu and Andy Phillips are the only Yankee regulars betting less than .290; a mind-blowing 7 Yankees are currently hitting a better than a .300 clip.
-7 players already have more than 100 hits with Derek Jeter and Cano on pace for 200+.
-A-Rod, right, picked right up where he left off in April and has already passed the 500 career home runs mark (the youngest player in baseball histoy to do so), and virtually locked up the Home Run Crown (39), RBI title (112), and AL MVP award.
-Jeter is again batting north of .320 for the year (good for 6th in the AL).
-Robinson Cano has raised his batting average over 30 points since the All Star Break to .313 (he's raking at a .414 mark since the break), not to mention rediscovering his power stroke to the tune of 10 HR since June 1 after hitting only 3 in the season's first 3 months.
-Bobby Abreu has regained his notable plate-discipline to raise his batting average 40 points since July 1st and also picked up his walks, slugging %, and RBI numbers.
-Hideki Matsui has raised his batting average 21 points since the All Star Break and has belted 11 homeruns during that time span to give him 23 on the year (good for 6th in the AL).
-Promising young outfielder Melky Cabrera has raised his batting average 33 points since July 1st while playing great enough defense to relegate Johnny Damon to spot-starting/DH duty.
-Jorge Posada has surged to reach the top 5 in the AL batting race (.338) in the midst of an overall career year both in the field and at the plate at 35 years of age.

2.The defense & pitching is MUCH improved, and, more importantly, finally healthy:

-Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera.
-Chien-Ming Wang is 7-1 in his last ten starts.
-Super Rookie Hughes and fresh new fireballer Joba Chamberlain have been as advertised, racking up the K's while not surrenduring many runs.
-Pettitte has been a workhouse all season providing a solid consistent presence in the rotation (and even a couple times out of the bullpen).
-Mussina and Clemens have probably been the streakiest starters (other than the young kids), but that's a great luxury to have: two guys with 250+ wins and big-time postseason experience are your "shakiest" rotation spots. They'll be primed and ready by late August.
-Clippard, Rasner, DeSalvo, and Wright have used their short time in the majors to learn and can now provide extra depth both in the starting rotation in case of an injury or in the bullpen as long/middle relief.
-They solved the "short bench" problem at the trade deadline by trading over-worked reliever Scott Proctor to the Dodgers for super-utility player Wilson Betemit (a shortstop who can play any infield position) who has shown flashes of great things at the dish, as well as adding veteran catcher Jose Molina to afford Posada a day off here and there to rest for the stretch run.

3.The Youth Movement has provided extra much-needed depth:

-The Yankees offseason trades of Sheffield and Johnson yielded enough high level talent that they could begin the harvest their homegrown studs without depleting the whole farm system.
-Most importantly, New York, maybe for the first time in the Steinbrenner Era, stood pat at the trade deadline and refused to let go of top prospects in any trade scenarios. Hughes (21, right) and Chamberlain (21), along with right-handed starting prospects Ian Kennedy (22), Humberto Sanchez (24), and Dellin Betances(19) could join Wang for one of the most dynamite young rotations in all of baseball in only a year or two.
-Mid-summer call up Shelley Duncan, 27, has been slugging his way into a full-time role with the team after racking up 5 HR and 10 RBI in only 35 AB to potentially make high-priced veterans like Giambi and Damon valuable trade pieces this winter.
-Melky Cabrera, who turned 23 yesterday, looks like an All-Star in the making with a tremendous combination of speed, defense, and timely hitting; He's currently riding a 16-game hitting streak, and already has 16 hits in 9 games this month.
-All the early-season injuries have become blessings in disguise for young players like Brian Bruney, Sean Henn, Edwar Ramirez, and Andy Phillips to have had a chance to showcase their talent to prove they can be valuable pieces to a playoff run.
-Thanks to their patience in developing the youngsters, the Yanks' minor league system now ranks in the Top 10. [#11 according to Hardball Times]


The Bottom line:
Today, the Yanks have used a stretch of winnable [easy] games to claw their way back into relevancy. They currently sit at 14 games above .500 (easily their highest mark of the year) into a virtual tie with Seattle and hold a 1 game lead over Detroit in the Wild Card race, but have slashed Boston's divisional cushion to a mere 5 games (The two rivals still have 6 more games against each other).

The baseball world should be very afraid of this current team. They've been through the depths of a god-awful slump and managed to streak back into contention with a stong mix of youthful energy and veteran know-how. This IS NOT a team that anyone wants to see lingering around in October. If the Yankees can stay healthy, and hold on to their current pace, they will be a very, very dangerous club down the stretch.

This team wants to show what it means to suit up in the pinstripes: Win. When it counts. These guys want to silence the critics who said they were cooked back in June. You can feel the rush of confidence beaming from every player in the clubhouse. They now know they can win.

That is why we'll all still be watching this team's remarkable and improbable turnaround into the brisk air of November; as The Postseason Streak stays still very much in tact.

...And as they hoist their 40th American League pennant.

And when they step onto the field at the World Series amidst all the doubting and naysaying...


I bet it'll be fun to be the underdogs for once.


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